Crypto Cycle Indicator
Six battle-tested price models, distilled into one honest 0–100 score for where Bitcoin sits in its cycle — and a full breakdown so you can see exactly what is driving it. Educational only. Not financial advice.
What this score means
A low score points to historically cheap, accumulation-style conditions. A high score points to historically overheated, cycle-top-style conditions. It blends the six models below — tap a card to learn what each one measures. Remember: every model here is a backward-looking heuristic and can be wrong.
Cycle score history vs Bitcoin price
Live BTC price data from public market sources (Binance, with CoinGecko fallback). All maths run in your browser — nothing is sent to a server. Works best on the live site; in-app previews may block data requests.
A transparent method — including what it can't do
The Crypto Cycle Indicator takes the full daily Bitcoin price history, computes six well-known cycle models, converts each into a 0–100 "heat" sub-score using documented thresholds, then averages the available sub-scores into one composite. Low means historically cheap and accumulation-like; high means historically overheated and top-like. Every input is a public, reproducible calculation on price alone — you can verify the maths yourself.
What we deliberately leave out, and why. Tools like the CBBI also fold in on-chain metrics — NUPL/RUPL, Reserve Risk, the RHODL Ratio, the MVRV Z-Score and the Puell Multiple. Those depend on processed blockchain data (realised cap, coin-age bands, miner revenue) that a browser-based tool cannot source for free or verify. Rather than estimate or fake those signals, we show only what we can compute openly. That makes this a price-model indicator, not an on-chain one — narrower than the CBBI, but fully transparent. If you want the on-chain view too, treat the two as complementary.
Why the thresholds are heuristics. Each model is normalised against bands that roughly matched previous cycles (for example, a Mayer Multiple near 2.4 has often coincided with overextension). But Bitcoin's cycles have changed: several models now "top out" at lower readings than they did in 2013 or 2017. So the score is a rough lens, not a calibrated forecast.
Six models, one score
Pi Cycle Top, Mayer Multiple, Golden Ratio, 2-Year & 200-Week MA multiples and RSI — each scored 0–100, then averaged.
Nothing hidden
Every sub-score and raw value is shown in the breakdown above, with the exact formula on each card. No black box.
Runs on your device
Prices are fetched from public APIs and every calculation happens in your browser. No account, no tracking of your inputs.
What each indicator measures
Tap any card in the tool to highlight it. Here is what each one is actually telling you.
- Pi Cycle Top
- Compares the 111-day average to twice the 350-day average. When the 111DMA pushes above 2× the 350DMA, history has often (not always) marked a cycle top. Our heat rises as that ratio approaches and exceeds 1.
- Mayer Multiple
- Price divided by the 200-day average. Around 1 is "average"; readings stretching toward 2.4+ have signalled overextension, while sub-1 readings have marked value zones.
- Golden Ratio Multiplier
- Price relative to the 350-day average. Multiples of that average (via Fibonacci numbers) have lined up with intra-cycle and cycle tops. Heat rises as price stretches far above the 350DMA.
- 2-Year MA Multiplier
- Price against the 2-year (730-day) average and a 5× upper band. Near or below the average has been a long-term accumulation zone; near the 5× band has been a distribution zone.
- 200-Week MA Heatmap
- Price against the 200-week (1,400-day) average. Cycle bottoms have repeatedly formed close to this slow average, making it a useful "floor" reference.
- RSI (14-day)
- A momentum oscillator from 0–100. High readings show strong, fast upside (potentially overbought); low readings show heavy, fast downside (potentially oversold).
Important: this is not financial advice
⚠️ For education and information only
The Crypto Cycle Indicator is not a buy, sell or hold signal. It is an educational model built from backward-looking price heuristics. No indicator can reliably predict market tops or bottoms, and any of these can stay "overheated" or "cheap" for months — or be flat wrong.
Cryptocurrency is highly volatile and you can lose some or all of your money. Past performance and past cycles do not guarantee future results. Nothing here accounts for your personal circumstances, tax position or risk tolerance.
Always do your own research and consider speaking to a qualified, regulated financial adviser before making any investment decision. Never invest money you cannot afford to lose. Luck.fyi does not sell securities, custody funds, or provide personalised advice.